«Economic growth accelerated in January-July amid expanding consumer and investment activity. The performance of industry and agriculture improved significantly. Inflation has remained steadily below the National Bank’s ceiling. Against this backdrop, lending and deposit market rates are declining. The foreign trade position improved amid significant growth in exports of services. In the absence of new shocks, Belarus’ economic growth may exceed our forecast and amount to more than 2% in 2026,» the EDB said. As previously reported, Belarus’ target GDP growth rate for 2026 is 2.8%.

Belarus’ economy grew by 2.1% in January-July 2026 year-on-year, up from 1.5% growth in January-June. Agriculture made the key contribution: an early harvest boosted output by 12.9% in January-July, compared with 4.7% in January-June. In industry, growth accelerated to 4.9% in July, while output for January-July 2026 recovered to the 2025 level. This performance was driven by vehicle manufacturing, pharmaceuticals, the chemical industry, and food processing amid stronger domestic demand.

Value added in the information and communications sector increased by 4.9%, contributing about 0.2 percentage points to GDP growth. Transport and logistics services grew by 4.2%, up from 4%, adding 0.2 percentage points to GDP growth. Construction recovered after a downturn caused by abnormally low temperatures in January-February 2026. Growth in construction and installation work of 6.2% in Q2 brought the January-July increase to 2.3%.

Consumer demand remains strong. Retail sales grew by 8.1% in January-July, up from 7.6% in H1 2026. Rising real disposable incomes, which increased by 8% in January-June, supported consumption, including through higher wages and transfers. Lending provided additional support. Consumer credit disbursements increased by 32% in Q2, following a 2.9% decline in Q1.

Investment activity recovered, with investment rising by 10% in Q2 of 2026 after declining by 2.7% in Q1. In January-June 2026, investment growth reached 4.1%.

The unemployment rate stood at 2.1% in Q2 2026, hitting a new historical low. Real wages increased by 7.7% in January-July 2026, including a 10.6% increase in wages in the public sector.

Inflation in Belarus stood at 4.4% year-on-year in July 2026, up from 4.3% in June, remaining below the 7% ceiling set for 2026. Amid slowing price growth, the list of regulated goods was reduced in July. «We estimate that inflation will remain below the National Bank’s ceiling in 2026 and will stand at around 5%,» EDB analysts forecast.

The National Bank of the Republic of Belarus lowered the refinancing rate by 0.5 percentage points to 9.25% per annum on 1 June 2026 and eased regulatory requirements for lending. This provided support, including for investment lending.